Tuesday’s UK & Irish Horse Racing Bets

44 of the 54 winners in the sample came from avoiding these negatives, from just 38.5% of the runners. They were collectively worth a profit of 7.57 points at SP, and a slightly more worthwhile 31.15 points at BSP. There is the occasional shock result in Cheltenham Festival novice Grade 1’s. But four, out of 54, is not a percentage on which to hang one’s wagering hat. Interestingly, perhaps – or maybe just coincidence – two of the four winners at 16/1 or longer in the last decade came in the Albert Bartlett.

American racehorse owner hopes to win at Aintree 100 years after his great uncle triumphed in the Grand National

In 2008, Fiveforthree bridged that class chasm as a 7/1 chance in the Ballymore – now Gallagher – i.e. this race. And in 2022, The Nice Guy did likewise at 18/1 in the Spuds race. Thirty others tried and failed, though you’d have got paid out on at least six of them for a place. In other words, market wise, they’ve probably fared no worse than any other Willie cohort; which is to say losing a little bit over time and the real longshots don’t win. Best of the British could be Handstands, for Ben Pauling and former Gold Cup sponsor Tim Radford. He is an unbeaten domestic, defending a point and three hurdle scores, the most recent of which was in the Listed Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, where he beat the previous Grade 1 winner and subsequent Grade 2 second, Jango Baie.

Arkle Chase – Shishkin to win by six lengths-plus (10/3 Skybet)

He’s since won another five Supremes, each ridden by the stable jockey (Ruby four times, Paul Townend once). That Paul has opted for Tullyhill is a potential red herring this year because Mystical Power has a retained jockey – and there is nothing to separate them in the market as I write (Sunday afternoon). Well, classy types have a decent record in the race and Ballyadam, despite the steadier of twelve stone, has bundles of it. A hard task off top weight, but definitely one for those exacta and trifecta mixes.

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I need to watch it again, but he looked pretty good today, and it’s exciting. Henry Longfellow stuck on well for second and was only beaten a neck, with three lengths back to French Guineas winner Metropolitan. But the big disappointment of the race was the 6-4 favourite Notable Speech, who never really threatened to get in a serious blow. Gordon Elliott’s big hope was sent off the 8-11 favourite for the opening race on day two, having arrived unbeaten in six starts under rules. But the winning post is not on the home bend and there were no signs of panic from de Boinville, as good a man for the big occasion as there is riding in Britain at the moment.

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The Festival Bumper is a good example of race trends evolving, and the trend is away from big-priced winners. Four of the last five winners were returned 7/2 or shorter and the outlier was the 11/1 Willie Mullins trained Ferny Hollow ridden by Paul Townend. All the last ten winners of the Champion Bumper where LTO winners and all of them were aged five or six. Firstly, it’s well established that for all his talent he is ungenuine and has twice pulled himself up in front after trading at 1.01 on Betfair. I napped him on the latter occasion, so am unlikely to forget it.

Robin Goodfellow’s racing tips: Best bets for Thursday, April 21

He’s no longer an each way price so I hope he’ll go very close to winning. Last time out, Edwardstone looked a new man under revised tactics. Sent forward in the four-runner heavy ground Grade 2 Game Spirit he barreled clear by 40 lengths from Funabule Sivola.

Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap Past Winners

• The best meetings are broadcast on either ITV or ITV4, with racing broadcast every single Saturday afternoon, plus lots of big festival meetings (like the famous Cheltenham Festival in March) which are staged through the week.
• Like Ms Parfois, Kilbeg King will be ridden by Will Biddick, who has been the best English amateur at Cheltenham over the past decade and more.
• LTO winners outside Graded and Listed company have by far the poorest strike rate as you would expect.
• So if a horse has figures of , it would have won its last three races but finished sixth the time before.
• The UK runners did close the gap in 2022, after a dreadful 2021.

And that’s a wrap for Day 1 at the Cheltenham Festival 2024. Hopefully this has been an entertaining read, and with a little luck, there’s a winner or three in its midst. We’ll all be back to do it again tomorrow – see you then. Mr Vango is a forward goer, so too Apple Away; but the small field means they’ll likely be steady away over this extended trip. Just an even gallop in prospect in all likelihood despite the large field.

Robin Goodfellow’s racing tips: Best bets for Wednesday, April 20

Coeur Sublime is another dark horse at a price, and Gabynako a third, in a trappy and open-looking Arkle. Brave Seasca, who has progressed through soft ground handicaps but was no match for Edwardstone last time, is probably a little out of his depth. A smallish field of nine sets the tone for a week where the non-handicaps are expected to be shallow affairs runners wise in the main, with the dominance of those aforementioned superyard chickens perhaps coming home to roost a little. Anyway, macro questions like that don’t belong before an obstacle has been cleared so let’s get back to business.

Breeders’ Cup 2024: Three European raiders form a 68/1 treble on Friday

Conditions were pretty terrible that day which wouldn’t have suited Teddy Blue at all so it was no real surprise, especially given the amount of energy he’d wasted early on, that he’d effectively shot his bolt by the third-last. He has few miles on the clock and was much improved when second at Wolverhampton last time. The best tipsGet the very best advice direct from the horse’s mouth via our expert tips page, featuring free tips as well as exclusive advice from some of the best judges in the business. The racecardsFind out more about the daily races, upcoming events and big-race entries via our cards page.

Other Principal races at Ayr racecourse

It’s fair to say that the Tizzard stable was in poor form at that moment and is firing much better now; if that was a factor in War Lord’s defeat, he might be over-priced. Want to oppose Sir Gerhard who is inexperienced over fences and would probably be running over shorter if trained by anyone else than Willie. Thunder Rock could be an ‘in running’ play if he’s travelling well in the first mile. Of the big prices, Coolvalla has nothing like the ratings to be in the shake up at this level. And yet, he’s won handicap chases by 19 lengths and 17 lengths the last twice, has proven stamina, jumps well, and comes here nicely rested. The four miler is not quite the race it was, and not just because it’s only three miles and six furlongs in distance these days.

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Unlucky not to win the NH Chase at Cheltenham a couple seasons ago and trainer’s UK strike rate is very good. Grosvenor Sport is offering new customers the chance to get £30 in FREE BETS when you bet £10 on horse racing. Henry Dwyer’s charge had finished fourth on her British debut in the Temple Stakes at Haydock last month, but she clearly enjoyed the faster ground at Royal Ascot to become Australia’s sixth winner of this race by a length. “He has been good all year, at Doncaster and then Sandown, and he ran a great race in the Lockinge where he came right away from all the horses he raced with.

• My selection was below par when dropped back to six furlongs at Pontefract on his penultimate outing, but roared back to form under Clifford Lee on the Knavesmire 20 days ago with a half-length margin from Blue For You.
• He’s a powerful type who has the ability to be involved when it matters most.
• The way he jumped/travelled that day marked him down as one who will be well served by the demands of this race.
• Events like Cheltenham serve as a barometer of both the excitement and unpredictability of horse racing, illustrating the necessity of astute financial planning.
• Getting one’s head around sectional timing is not the easiest way to play the horses, but there are real insights to be gleaned for those who take some time to figure it out.
• He’s got an almighty engine on him, and seems to be pretty versatile ground wise; the trip is fine and he can lead or race handily; and he’s jumped very well in the main.

Winners of one or two races on heavy are 1.4 times more likely to win than heavy maidens; and winners of three heavy ground races previously are more than 1.5 times more likely to prevail than maidens on that extreme of going. This horse is having its second run after a wind op and its first wearing a tongue tie. Both of those might be expected to eke out a little improvement; and look at the contextual snippets block – accessed Bolts Up Daily by clicking the trainer icon (with the red box around it). There we see Fry’s two year record with handicap debutants at any track, which is fairly unexciting, but note above it his record when moving a horse notably in distance. A perfect example of a terrible race in need of a winner, with a single horse moderately favoured by conditions and within a few pounds (see right hand columns) of its last winning mark.

• This season, battle lines are drawn between Britain and Ireland and, as with the Champion Hurdle two races later, team captains are Messrs Henderson and Mullins.
• Mullins also saddles Cantico, ridden by stable jockey Paul Townend, who cruised to victory at Navan last month.
• On balance, unless he drifts to a double figure price, I’ll let him beat me – if he did drift he’d be playable win only, I think.
• There he conceded a stone and a half to Latenightpass but was beaten only five lengths or so.
• The Last Samuri, a smart horse at Aintree, is interesting.
• You should also think about investigating some of the many free horse racing tips that float around online.

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV)

Most likely is that the top two in the betting will mark each other behind the rags, with Vauban expected to be ridden cold at the back of the field. It will be frenetic, due to the field size and the number of jockeys having their first ride of the week. The first of nine handicaps and I’ll tell you now that my thoughts will be (mercifully) brief. This race has been won by the home team exclusively since Dun Doire and Tony Martin wrested it away in 2006. They actually don’t run many – just three darts this year – and I’ll be fielding against them, perhaps carelessly. There looks to be plenty of early speed in this line up with each of Ha d’Or, Dysart Dynamo and Jonbon leading in their most recent three races.

• By maintaining detailed records of your wagers, you can analyse your betting patterns, identify profitable strategies, and pinpoint areas for improvement.
• He was bred by Sheikh Mohammed Obaid and is a great advert for a new stallion.
• APPLE AWAY is seemingly held on Reynoldstown form, but I thought she was better than the bare result at Ascot, jumping really well on the whole and trying to battle back when getting squeezed out at the final fence.
• More than that, the same horses seem to have hit the frame with regularity.

Five-year-old Marie’s Rock had won a Listed mares race at Taunton, and Love Envoi was a year away from making her debut. The outcome of the race largely depends on Lossiemouth’s ability to stay the 2m 4f distance today. However, her tendency to be keen raises a doubt about her effectiveness over longer distances. Last year’s runner-up, Love Envoi, is a contender for the places once again.

Thunder Sparks

LH – Can’t make a strong case for Honeysuckle, but can see why she’s stepped up to Mares’ Hurdle distance. Epatante appears to be regressing more slowly than Honeysuckle and “mullered” some lesser horses at Doncaster last time. Interested in Love Envoi and Maries Rock if she shows here, but not Echoes In Rain. Best form seems to be on soft, could be a place lay on a sounder surface. At longer prices, Diverge and Doctor Bravo are mildly interesting in what looks a very open and potentially substandard renewal.

True, he was well seen off by Marie’s Rock in the Relkeel, though that was over an extra half mile; and he was no match for State Man in the County a year ago. He has some impressive performances to his name, most of them on genuine good ground, but I can’t quite shake that County clunk from my memory banks. Kilbeg King got low at several of his fences at Ascot but still stayed on dourly at the end to force the winner to pull out all the stops. On that cheerful note, let’s dive into the latest renewal, with just the seven runners meaning there’s no point looking for an each-way angle into the race. All seven of the runners have a chance and the first thing I want to say is that the old advice that Derek O’Connor’s mount already has a 5lb advantage is not to be believed.

He’ll be finishing strongly and looks a solid each way alternative to a ‘nothing between them’ top of the market. If we’re looking for the Hail Mary, a phrase our editor Matt loves so much, then it has to be Latin Verse. He looks so unlike a Boodles winner it’s untrue – this will be his seventh hurdles start and he’s already raced in an all-aged handicap at Ludlow last time out, one which he won by no fewer than 19 lengths. A 10lb rise for that win not only looks lenient – Timeform expected him to get a stone and more – but it creeps him right into the bottom of the handicap. If you’re a lover of figures (and we are, of course) he comes out well on both form and time.

In the last twelve years, every winner of this race was either a single figure price (five winners) or 25/1+ (seven). Last year’s 80/1 bomb was only a minor outlier on a recent history that includes a 40/1, three 33/1’s and two 25/1’s – so maybe this is the race to turn the form book upside down. If that’s your thing, let’s mess about with the concept for a minute. Echoes In Rain enjoyed a purple patch last spring where a hat-trick of wins was capped by Grade 1 honours in a Punchestown Festival novice hurdle. At the top table this term, she’s found life tougher, twice getting a distant view of Sharjah’s tail before finishing closer to Honeysuckle albeit in a steadily run contest. This is shallower than those meetings with Champion Hurdle aspirants, actual and absent, and it wouldn’t be a total shock if she were to bounce back.

Billboard Star brings Group form to the table and gets in here off a lovely racing weight. GET ready for a bit of Jamie Spencer (below) magic on CARRYTHEONE. He looks like he belongs at this level, but conditions would be a concern. English Oaks looked smart when hacking up here in the Buckingham Palace.

If any horse can stop State Man’s procession to glory it might be Irish Point, in the Robcour colours and trained by Gordon Elliott. This time last year, while State Man was getting closest to Constitution Hill, Irish Point was winning a Grade 3 novice hurdle at Naas. He’s since won the 2m4f Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ at Aintree, and then this season he’s added a Grade 3 at Down Royal and the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown. But that Leopardstown race is contested over almost three miles and, as the name suggests, it was contested at the end of last year. It was a terrifically convincing score there but in a slow time beating (relatively) slow horses. I don’t see how that makes him second pick for a Champion Hurdle.

Both of those top level scores were on the soft side of good, though it might be a lot wetter here. I just feel that, if Edwardstone also goes forward, and with any or all of Jonbon, Elixir De Nutz, Funambule Sivola and El Fabiolo snapping at his heels, he’s going to be vulnerable in the last quarter of the race. All of the last 14 winners had raced 6-16 times under rules in their career. Ballyburn can lead or follow, handles the ground, has won at the distance, generally jumps fluently for a novice and has the best form. Again, he’s not necessarily a bad price even though he’s a short price.

Despite owner Michael O’Leary’s efforts to quash the hype, SAMCRO arrives with a sizeable reputation and his racecourse performances say that he deserves it. He has won all three hurdles races easily, including a Grade One at Leopardstown, and there is a strong suspicion we have yet to see just how could he is. Vision Des Flos showed the benefit of a wind operation when turning a competitive Exeter Listed race into a procession and should ensure Samcro earns his prize. Black Op represents the team that won Tuesday’s first race and they will have a solid line to novice form. Next Destination finished third in last year’s Champion Bumper here and has built on that level of form over hurdles.

• Only 19 have shown up but, while they have failed to win, they have recorded an impressive five placed efforts (26.32% place rate vs 18.18% for the boys).
• Supported by a valuable card at Ascot and a return to Ayr.
• A hard task off top weight, but definitely one for those exacta and trifecta mixes.
• But the likes of Evan Williams and Charlie Longsdon (0 from 31, 0 places, between them), Noel Meade and Dr Richard Newland (0 from 27, 3 places, collectively) are probably best passed up.
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• These older lads and lasses are now 0 from 24, though Faugheen looks a live chance in a novice chase, probably the Marsh (former JLT) this time around.
• Of the 964 runners in such races in the past ten years, 842 (87%) were aged five to eight (ignoring the Fred Winter).
• SH – Betting each way at shortish prices is not for everyone, but Banbridge will surely be hard to keep out of the frame and has a solid win chance, too.
• Maintaining a betting log aids in tracking your bets effectively, especially when engaging in diverse markets like international races.

The eight-year-old’s owner, Patricia Pugh, is curator at the Horseracing Museum in Newmarket but in Altior, the Latin for higher, she has a priceless artefact, the star exhibit, a Champion who can rule this division for a couple of years yet. “The foot (Monday’s infection) was nothing,” said a beaming Henderson. “It was of no consequence and when he wasn’t winning round the last bend I wasn’t about to start using that as an excuse. It has been a tough year (with his wind operation) and he’s been missing out but he’s very good, he’s just got gears.

A race that will probably play out in line with the market expectation of a duel between Jonbon and El Fabiolo. If El Fab’s jumping holds up, I think he’ll win, and if it doesn’t I think Jonbon will win. I don’t really see Dysart Dynamo sustaining his front-footed charge and prefer Saint Roi to travel round in his own time and pick up the each way pieces. Not especially a betting race if you haven’t already played, I don’t think. Olly Murphy runs two in the race, Chasing Fire and Strong Leader, and my preference of the pair is for the former. He’s unbeaten in a point, a bumper, and three hurdle races and, though untested in Graded company, he’s kicked to the kerb everything he’s faced hitherto.

I thought he was very impressive that day at Cork and with this race being in similar conditions I’m expecting a similar performance. It was disappointing to see him beaten at odds-on last time out at Clonmel but it looked a tactical small field race off a steady pace which wouldn’t have suited him, and I think he was done for a bit of toe up the straight. The Mare’s Chase is being billed as a match this year and while I do think both Allegoire De Vassy and Imprevious are brilliant mares, I think the market has overlooked MAGIC DAZE.

She will also have to prove her stamina on this first attempt beyond two miles, her pedigree not guaranteeing she’ll stay. Queen’s Brook will be Gordon Elliott’s hope for the race, the mare having run third in the 2020 Champion Bumper behind Ferny Hollow before skipping last year’s Festival. Her recent form is consistent and ties in with the likes of Burning Victory but she’s won only once from five starts over hurdles since her maiden score.

MT – This is a great betting race, as it’s a different test from most of the races through the season and throws up some big priced winner as a result. Only one winner shorter than 11/1 in the past nine years. Favori de Champdou and Affordale Fury are two of interest, but whatever you like, swing win only rather than each way.